Rice County Republicans

“True Believer” is a term appropriate to many mass cultural, political and social movements. When Eric Hoffer first wrote about this concept he was referring to communists, fascists, and the like.  Certainly part of his thesis is that True Believers motivations are not necessary dogmatic so much as behavioral, that is, people in the movement are more driven by the process of the movement than by the ideas, ideals and goals.  When I was first introduced to this concept in a 1960′s era social studies course, the instructor told us that reformed fascists do not become moderates. Because they are addicted to the idea that central planning can work and addicted to the idea of being in a movement, they will often become communists (who also believe in central planning and the use of force to coerce people to behave according to their beliefs).

So, what of the True Believers who believe in science? They believe in a process of reasoning, the scientific method, that has as its central dogma that any truth is only as good as the tests that support it, and that any “truth” that cannot be so tested is really not a scientific truth. Unfortunately, the True Believers in Global Warming are able, through force and intimidation, to suppress the healthy debate that constitutes science.

A recent article was brought to our attention, but the intermediate source was suspicious (might be called biased) so we dug a little deeper, and uncovered the fountainhead of a river of information.  The reference (below) was summarized by the corresponding author as saying

“The surge in global temperatures since 1977 can be attributed to a 1976 climate shift in the Pacific Ocean that made warming El Niño conditions more likely than they were over the previous 30 years and cooling La Niña conditions less likely”

“We have shown that internal global climate-system variability accounts for at least 80% of the observed global climate variation over the past half-century. It may even be more if the period of influence of major volcanoes can be more clearly identified and the corresponding data excluded from the analysis.” (corresponding author de Freitas.)

While this begs the question, “what caused the climate shift in the Pacific Ocean?” it does suggest that the simplistic (relatively) IPCC  (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the United Nations) explanation might be driven more by politicians and activists in the True Believers in Global Warming (TBGW) cohort than by the scientists who are actually seeking scientific truth.  It seems the politicians are debating how to fix a problem even as science is still unsure of the cause.  Like ethanol, the “cure” has taken on a following of its own and we run the risk that they are tilting at windmills using our tax monies. I guess the old adage, “you get what you pay for” is still accurate in the cabal of big government and big special interests (like the IPCC), where governments composed of TBGWs fund scientists who pander to their dogma.

Reference:

Influence of the Southern Oscillation on tropospheric temperature,  J. D. McLean (Applied Science Consultants, Croydon, Victoria, Australia), C. R. de Freitas (School of Geography, Geology and Environmental Science, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand),  R. M. Carter (Marine Geophysical Laboratory, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia)

Abstract: Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958−2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5- to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El Niño−Southern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.

Ref: http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008JD011637.shtml